The early evidence was the pump, but I took it apart and it seemed to turn. The problem was it would make a relatively unhappy humming noise, and it wouldn't drain. The part that shifts between cycles was also on the list, so I tried a dummy load, and observed it would fill, agitate, but not drain.
So I finally decided the first guess was the best, and bought the pump. It was the problem, and the fix is pretty fast once you've gathered your tools (5/16" socket, screwdriver, channellocks, restock your curse words) and the part.
I just tipped it back (not all the way), and worked underneath. You can drain enough by pulling the drain house out of the washer box and dumping it into a pail a few times (getting the hose outlet as low as possible). I was somewhat impressed by how easy this was to service, and the rest of the unit *appears* easy to work on (vs pulling back and or side panels).